CSJ Gridiron Power Index 2024 NCAA FCS Playoff Projection – 10/23/2024

Using the GPI for this week of 10/23/2024, the following would be the field of 24 teams for the 2024/25 Division I FCS Football Playoffs.

North Dakota State would be the top seed using the rankings for this week, while Montana State would be the second seed.

South Dakota State would be third, while South Dakota and UC Davis would be the #4 and #5 seeds respectively.

Overall for this year, there are 10 conferences that get their champion into the field as an automatic qualifier. The remaining 14 positions are at-large selections. The following are the 10 automatic qualifying leagues:

Big Sky
Big South/Ohio Valley
Coastal Athletic
Missouri Valley
Northeast
Patriot
Pioneer

Southland
SoCon
United Athletic

The MEAC, SWAC, and Ivy League do not send their conference champions to the playoff field. The MEAC and SWAC non-winners of either their division or the conference could be selected so these teams were taken into consideration such as Florida A&M three years ago was selected for the 24-team field.

Also, transitioning FCS to FBS teams are not eligible for the FCS playoffs, which includes Delaware and Missouri State.

The selection group will move from seeding just the Top 8 to the Top 16 this year with the Top 16 guaranteed at least one playoff home game.

Below is a list of all 24 teams with the ones highlighted in orange are the automatic qualifier from their respective conference (again, using the Sagarin rating to determine that team). The teams highlighted in yellow represent the at-large selections:

The seeds (and first round byes) would be as follows using the GPI:

SeedTEAMCONFW-LLASTRAW GPI SCORE
1North Dakota StateMVFC6-121
2Montana StateBig Sky8-032.375
3South Dakota StateMVFC5-212.625
4South DakotaMVFC6-144
5UC DavisBig Sky7-165.5
6North DakotaMVFC5-286.25
7Southeast Missouri StateBSC-OVC7-199.125
8Incarnate WordSouthland5-2129.5

The next eight teams would be seeds:

9MontanaBig Sky5-2109.625
10Tarleton StateUAC6-11310.125
11IdahoBig Sky5-31111
12Central ArkansasUAC5-21414.375
13MercerSoCon6-1514.375
14ChattanoogaSoCon4-31514.5
15Rhode IslandCAA6-11816.5
16VillanovaCAA5-2717.375

Below would the be bracket using a fully 24-seeded field. No regionalization was considered for the 24-team field and the bracket was solely made by the GPI rankings.

Projected Conference Champions and At Large Field

Big Sky – Montana State
Big South/Ohio Valley – Southeast Missouri State
Coastal Athletic – Rhode Island
Missouri Valley – North Dakota State
Northeast – Duquesne
Patriot – Holy Cross
Pioneer – Drake

Southland – Incarnate Word
SoCon – Mercer
United Athletic
Tarleton State

At-Large Bids: South Dakota State, South Dakota, UC Davis, North Dakota, Montana, Idaho, Central Arkansas, Chattanooga, Villanova, Richmond, UT Martin, William & Mary, Illinois State, Abilene Christian

Next Four: East Tennessee State, North Carolina Central*, Western Carolina, Monmouth

Possible Matchups

Richmond at No. 16 Villanova, winner plays No. 1 North Dakota State
Holy Cross at No. 15 Rhode Island, winner plays No. 2 Montana State
William & Mary at No. 14 Chattanooga, winner plays No. 3 South Dakota State
UT Martin at No. 13 Mercer, winner plays No. 4 South Dakota
Illinois State at No. 12 Central Arkansas, winner plays No. 5 UC Davis
Drake at No. 11 Idaho, winner plays No. 6 North Dakota
Duquesne at No. 10 Tarleton State, winner plays No. 7 Southeast Missouri State
Abilene Christian at No. 9 Montana, winner plays No. 8 Incarnate Word