CSJ Gridiron Power Index 2024 NCAA FCS Playoff Projection – 10/30/2024
Using the GPI for this week of 10/30/2024, the following would be the field of 24 teams for the 2024/25 Division I FCS Football Playoffs.
North Dakota State would be the top seed using the rankings for this week, while South Dakota State would be the No. 2 seed. Montana State would be the third seed.
South Dakota and UC Davis would round out the #4 and #5 seeds respectively.
This week, the FCS Playoff Committee released their in-season Top 10 ranking for seeds. The GPI predicted six of their top eight seeds (Montana State and South Dakota State being tied in the GPI at T2). The GPI had Idaho at 10th and Mercer at 11th, replacing them with Montana (7th) and Incarnate Word (8th).
The FCS Playoff Committee has not made their data public as to how they came to their conclusion on their mock selection process, but they are on the record as saying they will no longer use the Stats Perform Media Poll and AFCA Coaches Poll on its list of data points. They can now consider rankings in the KPI, Massey Ratings, and ESPN’s Football Power Index, although in the end it is a subjective process made by the humans on the committee. Only the Massey FCS ratings are publicly available.
The GPI is completely transparent on how it is determined. It is 50% human polling and 50% metrics-based computer polling, with the outliers removed and the remainder averaged. It is our position that it is not only important, but vital, to include human polls and the opinions of people who have actually watched FCS football games, so two of our data points are the Stats Perform Media Poll and the AFCA Coaches’ poll, as well as the Reddit FCS Poll, Any Given Saturday, and Redshirt Sports poll.
The five computer metrics-based polls used are the Laz Index, Massey Ratings, Sagarin Ratings, Keeper Ratings, and Dwiggins Ratings. All five computer rankings were at one time a part of the original GPI.
Additionally, we also have a projected bracket based on just the Sagarin ratings every week. This week, in a shocker, it has South Dakota State as the No. 1 seed.
Overall for this year, there are 10 conferences that get their champion into the field as an automatic qualifier. The remaining 14 positions are at-large selections. The following are the 10 automatic qualifying leagues:
Big Sky
Big South/Ohio Valley
Coastal Athletic
Missouri Valley
Northeast
Patriot
Pioneer
Southland
SoCon
United Athletic
The MEAC, SWAC, and Ivy League do not send their conference champions to the playoff field. The MEAC and SWAC non-winners of either their division or the conference could be selected so these teams were taken into consideration such as Florida A&M three years ago was selected for the 24-team field.
Also, transitioning FCS to FBS teams are not eligible for the FCS playoffs, which includes Delaware and Missouri State.
The selection group will move from seeding just the Top 8 to the Top 16 this year with the Top 16 guaranteed at least one playoff home game.
Below is a list of all 24 teams with the ones highlighted in orange are the automatic qualifier from their respective conference (again, using the Sagarin rating to determine that team). The teams highlighted in yellow represent the at-large selections:
The seeds (and first round byes) would be as follows using the GPI:
| Seed | TEAM | CONF | W-L | LAST | RAW GPI SCORE |
| 1 | North Dakota State | MVFC | 8-1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2 | South Dakota State | MVFC | 6-2 | 3 | 2.5 |
| 3 | Montana State | Big Sky | 8-0 | 2 | 2.5 |
| 4 | South Dakota | MVFC | 6-2 | 4 | 4.25 |
| 5 | UC Davis | Big Sky | 7-1 | 5 | 5.375 |
| 6 | Montana | Big Sky | 6-2 | 9 | 8.625 |
| 7 | Incarnate Word | Southland | 6-2 | 8 | 8.875 |
| 8 | Southeast Missouri State | BSC-OVC | 8-1 | 7 | 9.375 |
The next eight teams would be seeds:
| 9 | Tarleton State | UAC | 7-1 | 10 | 9.5 |
| 10 | Idaho | Big Sky | 6-3 | 11 | 10.375 |
| 11 | Mercer | SoCon | 7-1 | T12 | 12.5 |
| 12 | North Dakota | MVFC | 5-3 | 6 | 12.625 |
| 13 | Rhode Island | CAA | 7-1 | 15 | 13.75 |
| 14 | Central Arkansas | UAC | 6-2 | T12 | 13.875 |
| 15 | Chattanooga | SoCon | 5-3 | 14 | 15.5 |
| 16 | Villanova | CAA | 6-2 | 16 | 16.75 |
Below would the be bracket using a fully 24-seeded field. No regionalization was considered for the 24-team field and the bracket was solely made by the GPI rankings.
Projected Conference Champions and At Large Field
Big Sky – Montana State
Big South/Ohio Valley – Southeast Missouri State
Coastal Athletic – Rhode Island
Missouri Valley – North Dakota State
Northeast – Duquesne
Patriot – Holy Cross
Pioneer – Drake
Southland – Incarnate Word
SoCon – Mercer
United Athletic – Tarleton State
At-Large Bids: South Dakota State, South Dakota, UC Davis, Montana, Idaho, North Dakota, Central Arkansas, Chattanooga, Villanova, UT Martin, Richmond, Abilene Christian, Illinois State, Stony Brook
