CSJ Gridiron Power Index 2024 NCAA FCS Playoff Projection – 11/15/2024
Using the GPI for this week of 11/12/2024, the following would be the field of 24 teams for the 2024/25 Division I FCS Football Playoffs.
As has been the case now for two weeks, North Dakota State would be the top seed using the rankings for this week, while Montana State would be the No. 2 seed. South Dakota State would be the third seed.
UC Davis and South Dakota would round out the #4 and #5 seeds respectively. Overall, some variation on these top five schools have been the top five projected seeds using the GPI.
The GPI is completely transparent on how it is determined. It is 50% human polling and 50% metrics-based computer polling, with the outliers removed and the remainder averaged. It is our position that it is not only important, but vital, to include human polls and the opinions of people who have actually watched FCS football games, so two of our data points are the Stats Perform Media Poll and the AFCA Coaches’ poll, as well as the Reddit FCS Poll, Any Given Saturday, and Redshirt Sports poll.
The five computer metrics-based polls used are the Laz Index, Massey Ratings, Sagarin Ratings, Keeper Ratings, and Dwiggins Ratings. All five computer rankings were at one time a part of the original GPI.
The full GPI ratings can be found here.
Additionally, we also have a projected bracket based on just the Sagarin ratings every week. This week, in a shocker, it has South Dakota State as the No. 1 seed.
Overall for this year, there are 10 conferences that get their champion into the field as an automatic qualifier. The remaining 14 positions are at-large selections. The following are the 10 automatic qualifying leagues:
Big Sky
Big South/Ohio Valley
Coastal Athletic
Missouri Valley
Northeast
Patriot
Pioneer
Southland
SoCon
United Athletic
The MEAC, SWAC, and Ivy League do not send their conference champions to the playoff field. The MEAC and SWAC non-winners of either their division or the conference could be selected so these teams were taken into consideration such as Florida A&M three years ago was selected for the 24-team field.
Also, transitioning FCS to FBS teams are not eligible for the FCS playoffs, which includes Delaware and Missouri State.
The selection group will move from seeding just the Top 8 to the Top 16 this year with the Top 16 guaranteed at least one playoff home game.
Below is a list of all 24 teams with the ones highlighted in orange are the automatic qualifier from their respective conference (again, using the Sagarin rating to determine that team). The teams highlighted in yellow represent the at-large selections:
The seeds (and first round byes) would be as follows using the GPI:
| Seed | TEAM | CONF | W-L | LAST | RAW GPI SCORE |
| 1 | North Dakota State | MVFC | 9-1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2 | Montana State | Big Sky | 10-0 | 2 | 2.25 |
| 3 | South Dakota State | MVFC | 8-2 | 3 | 2.75 |
| 4 | UC Davis | Big Sky | 9-1 | 5 | 4.25 |
| 5 | South Dakota | MVFC | 7-2 | 4 | 4.75 |
| 6 | Incarnate Word | Southland | 8-2 | 7 | 7.25 |
| 7 | Idaho | Big Sky | 7-3 | 9 | 8.125 |
| 8 | Mercer | SoCon | 9-1 | 10 | 8.375 |
The next eight teams would also be seeds:
| 9 | Montana | Big Sky | 7-3 | 6 | 11.25 |
| 10 | Villanova | CAA | 8-2 | 12 | 12.125 |
| 11 | Richmond | CAA | 8-2 | 13 | 12.75 |
| 12 | Rhode Island | CAA | 8-2 | 11 | 13.625 |
| 13 | UT Martin | BSC-OVC | 7-3 | 14 | 14 |
| 14 | Tarleton State | UAC | 8-2 | 15 | 14.125 |
| 15 | Illinois State | MVFC | 7-3 | T16 | 16.375 |
| 16 | Southeast Missouri State | BSC-OVC | 8-2 | 8 | 17.125 |
Next Four: Abilene Christian, Chattanooga, Stony Brook, ETSU
Below would the be bracket using a fully 24-seeded field. No regionalization was considered for the 24-team field and the bracket was solely made by the GPI rankings.
Projected Conference Champions and At Large Field
Big Sky – Montana State
Big South/Ohio Valley – UT Martin
Coastal Athletic – Villanova
Missouri Valley – North Dakota State
Northeast – Duquesne (GPI: 30)
Patriot – Lehigh (GPI: T46)
Pioneer – Drake (GPI: 41)
Southland – Incarnate Word
SoCon – Mercer*
United Athletic – Tarleton State
(* means clinched the autobid)
At-Large Bids: South Dakota State, UC Davis, South Dakota, Idaho, Montana, Richmond, Rhode Island, Illinois State, Southeast Missouri State, Abilene Christian, Chattanooga, Stony Brook, ETSU, Northern Arizona
Bubble: North Dakota, New Hampshire, Central Arkansas, Western Carolina
Possible Matchups
Duquesne at No. 16 Southeast Missouri State, winner plays No. 1 North Dakota State
Drake at No. 15 Illinois State, winner plays No. 2 Montana State
Northern Arizona at No. 14 Tarleton State, winner plays No. 3 South Dakota State
East Tennessee State at No. 13 UT Martin, winner plays No. 4 UC Davis
Stony Brook at No. 12 Rhode Island, winner plays No. 5 South Dakota
Chattanooga at No. 11 Richmond, winner plays No. 6 Incarnate Word
Lehigh at No. 10 Villanova, winner plays No. 7 Idaho
Abilene Christian at No. 9 Montana, winner plays No. 8 Mercer
