CSJ Gridiron Power Index 2024 NCAA FCS Playoff Projection – 11/21/2024
BETHLEHEM, PA – Going into the final week of the regular season, the following would be the field of 24 teams for the 2024/25 Division I FCS Football Playoffs based on the College Sports Journal’s Gridiron Power Index (GPI) for the week of 11/21/2024.
According to the GPI, the same eight teams as last week would be the top eight seeds in the FCS Playoffs: North Dakota State, Montana State, South Dakota State, South Dakota, UC Davis, Incarnate Word, Idaho and Mercer.
This is the final regular season week of the full Gridiron Power Index with the regular polls factored in. At the conclusion of the regular season, a modified Gridiron Power Index with the latest computer polls will be computed to predict the final FCS playoff field.
The Gridiron Power Index is completely transparent on how it is determined. It is 50% human polling and 50% metrics-based computer polling, with the outliers removed and the remainder averaged. It is our position that it is not only important, but vital, to include human polls and the opinions of people who have actually watched FCS football games, so two of our data points are the Stats Perform Media Poll and the AFCA Coaches’ poll, as well as the Reddit FCS Poll, Any Given Saturday, and Redshirt Sports poll.
The five computer metrics-based polls used are the Laz Index, Massey Ratings, Sagarin Ratings, Keeper Ratings, and Dwiggins Ratings. All five computer rankings were at one time a part of the original GPI.
The full GPI ratings can be found here.
For the modified GPI on Saturday, the existing human polls will be used but with a different weighting system favoring the updated computer rankings. The final human polls from this week will still be a factor.
Additionally, we also have a projected bracket based on just the Sagarin ratings every week.
Overall for this year, there are 10 conferences that get their champion into the field as an automatic qualifier. The remaining 14 positions are at-large selections. The following are the 10 automatic qualifying leagues:
Big Sky
Big South/Ohio Valley
Coastal Athletic
Missouri Valley
Northeast
Patriot
Pioneer
Southland
SoCon
United Athletic
The MEAC, SWAC, and Ivy League do not send their conference champions to the playoff field. The MEAC and SWAC non-winners of either their division or the conference could be selected so these teams were taken into consideration such as Florida A&M three years ago was selected for the 24-team field.
Also, transitioning FCS to FBS teams are not eligible for the FCS playoffs, which includes Delaware and Missouri State.
The selection group will move from seeding just the Top 8 to the Top 16 this year with the Top 16 guaranteed at least one playoff home game.
Below is a list of all 24 teams with the ones highlighted in orange are the automatic qualifier from their respective conference (again, using the Sagarin rating to determine that team). The teams highlighted in yellow represent the at-large selections:
The seeds (and first round byes) would be as follows using the GPI:
| Seed | TEAM | CONF | W-L | LAST | RAW GPI SCORE |
| 1 | North Dakota State | MVFC | 10-1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2 | Montana State | Big Sky | 11-0 | 2 | 2.25 |
| 3 | South Dakota State | MVFC | 9-2 | 3 | 2.75 |
| 4 | South Dakota | MVFC | 8-2 | 5 | 4 |
| 5 | UC Davis | Big Sky | 9-2 | 4 | 5 |
| 6 | Incarnate Word | Southland | 9-2 | 6 | 6.5 |
| 7 | Idaho | Big Sky | 8-3 | 7 | 7.375 |
| 8 | Mercer | SoCon | 9-2 | 8 | 8.875 |
The next eight teams would also be seeds:
| 9 | Montana | Big Sky | 8-3 | 9 | 9.875 |
| 10 | Richmond | CAA | 9-2 | 11 | 12 |
| 11 | Rhode Island | CAA | 9-2 | 12 | 13 |
| 12 | Illinois State | MVFC | 8-3 | 15 | 13.5 |
| 13 | Abilene Christian | UAC | 8-3 | – | 13.5 |
| 14 | Southeast Missouri State | BSC-OVC | 9-2 | 16 | 14.875 |
| 15 | Tarleton State | MVFC | 8-3 | 14 | 16.375 |
| 16 | Villanova | CAA | 8-3 | 10 | 17.125 |
Next Four: Northern Arizona, UT Martin, South Carolina State*, Stony Brook, New Hampshire
*South Carolina State are MEAC champions and are going to play in the Celebration Bowl instead of the FCS Playoffs.
Below would the be bracket using a fully 24-seeded field. No regionalization was considered for the 24-team field and the bracket was solely made by the GPI rankings.
Projected Conference Champions and At Large Field
Big Sky – Montana State*
Big South/Ohio Valley – Southeast Missouri State
Coastal Athletic – Richmond*
Missouri Valley – North Dakota State
Northeast – Duquesne (GPI: 27)
Patriot – Lehigh (GPI: 41)
Pioneer – Drake (GPI: 56)
Southland – Incarnate Word*
SoCon – Mercer*
United Athletic – Abilene Christian*
(* means clinched the autobid)
At-Large Bids: South Dakota State, South Dakota, UC Davis, Idaho, Montana, Rhode Island, Illinois State, Tarleton State, Villanova, Northern Arizona, UT Martin, Stony Brook, New Hampshire, Chattanooga
Bubble: Eastern Kentucky, Southern Utah, Western Carolina, Southeast Louisiana
Possible Matchups
Lehigh at No. 16 Villanova, winner plays No. 1 North Dakota State
Northern Arizona at No. 15 Tarleton State, winner plays No. 2 Montana State
Duquesne at No. 14 Southeast Missouri State, winner plays No. 3 South Dakota State
UT Martin at No. 13 Abilene Christian, winner plays No. 4 UC Davis
*No. 12 Illinois State at Drake, winner plays No. 5 South Dakota
Stony Brook at No. 11 Rhode Island, winner plays No. 6 Incarnate Word
Chattanooga at No. 10 Richmond, winner plays No. 7 Idaho
New Hampshire at No. 9 Montana, winner plays No. 8 Mercer
*Illinois State is unable to host their seeded game because of the state championships at Hancock field at the same time.
