Final FCS Playoff Bracket Projection, 11/23/24

The FCS regular season has concluded, and based on the GPI and based on the results of the final weekend of games, here is CSJ’s projected FCS Playoff bracket for 2024.

The GPI was last computed on 11/20 and can be found here.

Conference Champions and Projected At Large Field

Big Sky – Montana State
Big South/Ohio Valley – Southeast Missouri State
Coastal Athletic – Richmond
Missouri Valley – South Dakota State
Northeast – Central Connecticut State (GPI: 75)
Patriot – Lehigh (GPI: 41)
Pioneer – Drake (GPI: 56)
Southland – Incarnate Word
SoCon – Mercer
United Athletic – Abilene Christian

At-Large Bid Locks, Based on GPI: North Dakota State, South Dakota, UC Davis, Idaho, Montana, Rhode Island, Illinois State, Tarleton State, Villanova, Northern Arizona

Last Four In on the Bubble: UT Martin, New Hampshire, Western Carolina, Southern Utah

UT Martin and Southern Utah’s FBS wins are what ultimately drag them over the finish line. New Hampshire’s win coupled with Stony Brooks’ loss cements their position. And Western Carolina’s win over Chattanooga, and 6-2 conference record, wins out.

First Five Out on the Bubble: Tennessee State, Eastern Kentucky, Stony Brook, Chattanooga

It’s odd that Tennessee State just beat SEMO and would be left out, but their conference schedule was the weakest of the OVC teams and I simply don’t believe the committee will select three OVC teams. Stony Brook lost their last two games, and EKU and Chatty’s losses the SUU and WCU respectively leave them out.

Seeding

1. Montana State
2. South Dakota State
3. South Dakota
4. North Dakota State
5. UC Davis
6. Incarnate Word
7. Idaho
8. Mercer
9. Richmond
10. Montana
11. Rhode Island
12. Illinois State
13. Abilene Christian
14. Villanova
15. Tarleton State
16. Northern Arizona

Final Projected Bracket

Southern Utah at No. 16 Northern Arizona, winner plays No. 1 Montana State
Southeast Missouri State at No. 15 Tarleton State, winner plays No. 2 South Dakota State
Lehigh at No. 14 Villanova, winner plays No. 3 South Dakota
UT Martin at No. 13 Abilene Christian, winner plays No. 4 North Dakota State
*No. 12 Illinois State at Drake, winner plays No. 5 UC Davis
Central Connecticut State at No. 11 Rhode Island, winner plays No. 6 Incarnate Word
Western Carolina at No. 10 Montana, winner plays No. 7 Idaho
New Hampshire at No. 9 Richmond, winner plays No. 8 Mercer

*Illinois State is unable to host their seeded game because of the state championships at Hancock field at the same time.